By Rohit Srivastava

On Thursday the New START Treaty between Russia and Unites States expired. With this over 50 years of agreement for reducing the nuclear stockpile and achieving strategic balance in this domain has ended. Given the current volatile state of the world, the collapse of START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) can have serious ramification for the world. On one side, Russia is fighting West through their proxy Ukraine and on the other hand, US is led by a president who wants to redefine US role as global hegemon.

START plays key role in the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and has been instrumental in bringing end to the nuclear arm race. START I and II ensured a transparent power balance in nuclear domain which eliminated the fundamental cause of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) of nuclear race – the unknown – the size of adversary’s arsenal. The treaty which brought end to the nuclear race has come to a silent end.  

What is START

Unites States and USSR (later Russia) established a frame work for reduction of nuclear arsenal through bilateral treaties. These treaties were outcome of Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT). On May 26, 1972, two sides signed Strategic Arms Limitation Talks Agreement which limited the nuclear ballistic missiles arsenal. Between 1972 -79, US and USSR had series of talks leading to signing of SALT -II treaty which banned any new missile programme for the two sides.

From the USSR’s Invasion of Afghanistan (December 1979) till fall of Berlin wall in November 1989, two sides were fighting one of the most exhaustive conflicts of the cold war. Two years later, US and USSR signed Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty on July 31, 1991. It entered into force in December, 1994. The treaty fixed the nuclear arsenal size with 6000 warheads with 1600 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM). This treaty expired in December 2009 and was replaced with New START on April 2010. This treaty capped the size of nuclear arsenal to 1600 warheads for both sides. This new Start was extended in 2018 to February 5, 2026.

Russian Statement  

“In February 2023, the Russian Federation suspended the New START Treaty against the backdrop of the unsatisfactory state of affairs with the implementation of certain aspects of the Treaty, as well as due to the absolutely unacceptable steps by the United States running counter to the fundamental principles and understandings of the agreement enshrined in its preamble,” Russia said in a statement on Wednesday.

“It is worth to highlight the destabilizing actions of the United States in the field of missile defense, contrary to the inseparable interrelationship between strategic offensive and strategic defensive arms enshrined in the New START Treaty. This contradicted the Treaty's objectives in terms of maintaining the balance of powers, put significant pressure on its viability, and created grounds for Russia to take compensatory measures outside the scope of the New START Treaty in order to maintain strategic equilibrium,” statement added.

“On September 22, 2025, the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin publicly proposed that the parties to the New START Treaty commit to voluntary self-limitations to keep the quantitative ceilings on the relevant weapons specified in the Treaty for at least one year after the termination of the agreement,” statement said.

US Stand

“The president's been clear in the past that in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it's impossible to do something that doesn't include China, because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said.

New Weapon Race

Rejecting US proposal on entering any restriction treaty, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said, “China's nuclear capabilities are of a totally different scale as those of the US and Russia. (Beijing) will not participate in nuclear disarmament negotiations at this stage. He said while addressing a press briefing.

Can there be a three-sided treaty? Chances are little closer to impossible. Without European nuclear powers – UK and France, the force balance is not in US favour and China understand it well. Can US compel China to join the treaty? START was product of an era when global understanding of nuclear weapons can be defined as doomsday paranoia. After 50 years of SALT and 80 years of nuclear weapons, global understanding of these weapons are well established .

What we may witness is proliferation of newer kind of strategic weapons of the kind that Russia has recently developed known as Russian super weapons. World may see a new kind of strategic armed race where instead number of warheads, race would be about delivery system which can withstand all kinds of emerging counter-measures.

The alacrity with which US is going against Iran should also be seen in the light of collapse of New START Treaty. US is renegotiating its relationship with the world. It is targeting nations that have emerged as challengers to its hegemony. US has taken down minor challengers like Syria, Venezuela and pushed EU and India towards recalibration of relationship, and is developing a new working relationship with China. Ukraine is being used to restrict Russian influence in the world and exhaust its economy, industry, resources and manpower.

The main nuclear challenge to US is Iran and if the current regime survives a full-scale war, it will be compelled to go nuclear. This would be the complete breakdown of nuclear balance in the world. How things will pan out in near future depends on so many factors that it is best to wait and watch.