Bashar-al Assad-Fall of Last Secular Regime in West Asia

  Sun, 12/08/2024 - 19:05
  Posted in Analysis

By Rohit Srivastava

The five decades of the Assad family rule on Syria has come to an abrupt end. The Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who ruled Syria from July 2000, has reportedly fled the country as Turkey and Qatar backed Islamist forces entered capital city Damascus on Sunday.

The sudden collapse of the regime has stunned the world, given the fact that the regime fought, survived and regained control of most of Syria from rebel Islamist forces after one and half decades of civil war. On November 27, opposition forces launched an offensive and soon captured historic city of Aleppo. The rest of the nation followed soon.

The Assad family rule began in 1971, when Hafez-al-Assad, became the president of Syria and secretary general of Syrian branch of Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party. His ruled till 2000 when Bashar took over the rule as heir of his rule. Hafez-al- Assad created a system of loyalist among social, political and military elites. As his son Bashar bequeathed that loyalist system. It is important to note that Saddam Hussein was also a Ba’ath Party ruler. Ba’ath party, founded in Syria by an Orthodox Christian Michel Aflaq and Sunni Muslim Salah al-Din Bitar, followed an ideology encompassing secular, socialist, pan-Arab nationalism. Ba’athist envisaged a unified socialist single Arab nation. Over the period of eight decades, Ba’athists ruled Syria, Iraq With the fall of the Bashar regime, the Assad family rule on Syria has come to an end.

Syria

Why the regime fell?

It is pertinent to ask how a regime which going against all odds survived the civil war, where opposition had support of all its neighbours and global power elites, fell so quick? Why its battle hardened forces failed to fight back in its own back yard? Why Russia couldn’t save Syria where it has two military bases? The Assad regime survived the darkest phase of Islamic militancy of ISIS but it collapsed within a week after long peace? Time will answer these questions slowly.

But for now, noted Syrian journalist and strategic expert Dr Waiel Awwad, while explaining the event says, “It is due to many factors that came together. There was infiltration by Turkish army elements into the radical Islamist group. They created sleeper cells. There was infiltration in Syrian intelligence and also access to military communication which gave conflicting orders confusing the military at front. The confusion made commanders pull back forces to avoid mass casualty.”

He further adds that, “Government relied too much on Russia which as we know is occupied in Ukraine war.”

He also blame the government’s disconnect with ground realities and failure in managing corruption in military and bureaucracy. “The harsh economic situation and American unilateral sanction on Syria made life miserable for common man in Syria impounded by the government taxes made people distance themselves from the government,” he added.

Last Secular Arab Republic

In 2010 Arab world witnessed, Arab Spring, popular uprising against government across Arabic speaking Africa and west Asia. The ruling regimes of oil-rich and pro western nations like Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan and others survived where as secular nationalist regimes of Tunisia (the first to fall), Libya, Yemen and Egypt fell successively. According to Dr Awwad, this Syrian government was the last one fighting to defend secular republic in Arab world.

Is this not just the end of Assad rule but also the end of secular and vibrant Syria? Is this also the end of the ancient Syrian civilization which predates all West Asian religion?

In near future we will come to know whether Syria follows the path of Egypt where a stable government will take control or will meet the fate akin to Libya and Yemen. The over throw of Begum Sheikh Hasina, a secular democrat by radical forces in India’s backyard and now Syria, it is mark of an unruly, unpredictable days ahead for the world.